Gonzales, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

073
FXUS64 KLIX 061120
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
620 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

High pressure will continue to build in from the north through the
short term period, and this will result in both increased deep
layer subsidence and drying throughout the atmospheric column.
This dry and subsident airmass will lead to skies turn mostly
clear and rain chances being pushed well offshore by tomorrow.
Even today into tonight, rain chances will be very limited with
only a few showers expected along the immediate coast of
Louisiana. The dry airmass will also support a fairly large
diurnal range with highs easily climbing into the mid to upper
80s and even into the lower 90s around Baton Rouge both today and
tomorrow, but lows will cool into the upper 60s and lower 70s
tonight and even fall further into the upper 50s and low to mid
60s by tomorrow night. Overall, there is a small amount of spread
in the ensemble guidance for the temperature forecast and have
stuck with the NBM deterministic values through the short term
period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Deep layer northerly flow will continue to feed a very dry and
stable airmass into the area, and this will keep skies clear and
rain chances suppressed through the end of the week. PWATS will be
well below average at around 0.80 to 0.90 inches through the
entire long term period. Winds will be somewhat breezy from the
northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday as Tropical Storm Milton passes
through the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico on its way to the
Florida peninsula, but do not expect winds to be strong enough to
warrant any type of wind advisories. Weak cold air advection into
the area will push temperatures closer to average with highs
expected to climb into the low to mid 80s. The dry air and clear
skies will allow overnight lows to fall into the mid to upper 50s
across inland zones and the low to mid 60s for areas along the
coast. Once again, the spread in the ensemble members is small and
have stuck with NBM deterministic values for the temperature
forecast through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A dry and stable airmass across the area will keep VFR conditions
in place at all of the terminals. Winds will remain from the
northeast through the period. The strongest winds will be at NEW
where winds of 13 to 15 knots with higher gusts can be expected.
Otherwise, winds will be closer to 10 knots today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Currently VFR across the region and should prevail through the
TAF cycle. Northeasterly to easterly winds will continue decrease
overnight after we decouple and then increase back to 10-20kts by
this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

As Tropical Storm Milton moves to the south and east of the waters
this week, increased winds and seas will impact the open Gulf
waters and even the sounds. East and northeast winds of 20 to 25
knots can be expected in these waters from today through Thursday
before conditions begin easing on Friday as Milton moves into the
Atlantic and the pressure gradient across the Gulf decreases.
These winds will help to produce wind waves of 5 to 7 feet in the
open waters and 3 to 5 feet in the sounds. However, the addition
of swells emanating from Tropical Storm Milton will push seas in
the open Gulf waters to 8 to 12 feet and in the sounds to 4 to 6
feet. The tidal lakes will be protected from these swells with
wind driven waves of 2 to 3 feet expected. The other concern will
be the potential for coastal flooding during each high tide cycle
through Thursday morning on east facing shores. This will be due
to the combination of persistent east-northeast winds and the
increased swell moving into the waters. Coastal flooding of 1 to 2
feet above ground level can be expected for east facing shores
when high tide is occuring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  66  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  90  69  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  87  68  89  64 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  86  74  86  70 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  85  70  87  66 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  85  69  88  65 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ069-070-076-
     078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG